Mark Boud of Real Estate Economics published their National 2012 Real Estate Market Forecast on January 30, 2012.
Mr. Boud consults mostly merchant builders on market conditions so they may make better decisions on current and future building projects under consideration.
Here is a summary of his research:
- There are strong signs of private employment growth nationally (and in Orange County). But, the public sector will continue to shed jobs.
- Housing construction is near an all-time low, but multi-family building permits have increased… builders are focusing on construction of apartments rather than homes.
- Housing Affordability is near an all-time high. A severe over correction is already well established.
- High numbers of defaults continue, but percentage of past due mortgage payments fell below 8% for the first time since the 4th Quarter of 2008.
- Price changes will range between -3% and +3% in most areas.
- Transaction volume has increased, reflecting the beginnings of market stability and improved economic expectations.
- Market improvements in Year 2012 will initially be driven by under valuation and improved consumer sentiment as opposed to economic growth.
- Market demand in the next housing cycle will be driven by mature buyers, mobile buyers (chasing jobs) and international buyers looking to invest in the U.S.
To listen to the entire webinar, goto: http://youtu.be/rt_ZzzMl4BU
Certainly Mr. Boud’s research echos the thoughts of Kiplinger and others who say “the worse is over”. And, the combination of positive job growth, falling mortgage defaults, historic low interest rates, high affordability, and record low new home construction are all factors which point to at least a slow but gradual improvement in the housing market by the end of 2012 or 2013.
According to Mr. Boud’s research, the market will most likely not “zoom up” anytime soon, but at least buyers will be able to purchase without the fear of a dramatic drop in prices.
For questions about buying and selling real estate in Orange County, contact Scot Campbell. He is the President of The Scot Campbell TEAM at Coldwell Banker-Campbell Realtors in Huntington Beach, CA. He has been a licensed broker for over 21 years and has brokered over 1000 homes and just about every type of transaction imaginable. Read his profile and client reviews at www.ScotCampbell.com He can be reached at 714-960-0700 at the office, 714-336-0394 on his mobile number or via email at Scot.Campbell@ColdwellBanker.com